Blackjack Bet Big Or Small

3/27/2022by admin
Blackjack Bet Big Or Small 3,6/5 9504 votes

One of the most often asked questions from players about blackjack strategy, is 'how should I bet?' You've got severaloptions and I'll discuss them in this article and offer my recommendation.

High Stakes Blackjack – For High Rollers / Whales! You are most likely familiar with playing blackjack at your local or online casino where the average bets range in size from $5 to $50 per hand, but did you know that high stakes blackjack is played every day for as much as $500,000 per hand? High Stakes Blackjack – For High Rollers / Whales! You are most likely familiar with playing blackjack at your local or online casino where the average bets range in size from $5 to $50 per hand, but did you know that high stakes blackjack is played every day for as much as $500,000 per hand?

Flat Bet Blackjack Strategy

This means betting the same amount all the time. Most players don't like to bet this way because they figure if the dealer wins more hands then them they'll never win any money. Also, playersfeel it's boring betting this way. They prefer the thrill of sometimes betting more in the hopes that when they do so, they will win the hand and make a nice profit.

Here are the facts on the flat betting blackjack strategy. If you bet say $5 on every hand in a standard multiple deck game the house will have an edge of 0.5% against theskilled basic strategy player. That means you will lose on average 0.5% of every wager you make. So if you bet $10 on every hand and average 80 hands per hour you will have made a total of $800worth of bets. The casino expects to earn 0.5% of the $800 or $4.00. Of course, the more likely result is that you'll win or lose much more than $4 after an hour of play. But on average you canexpect over time to lose at the rate of $4 per hour.

Let's take an example of a player flat betting $10 on every hand. It's is a conservative betting strategy that leads to a relatively low theoretical loss rate. The fluctuation in this player'sbankroll will also be low which means the likelihood he'll have a big winning or losing session is not great.

Watch 'Why You Should Never Make the Blackjack Insurance Bet with Blackjack Expert Henry Tamburin' (March 2016)

In this video blackjack expert Henry Tamburin explains why a basic strategy player should never make an insurance bet. He gives details on three different situations that a player may encounterand why he considers blackjack insurance to always be a sucker bet.

Progressive Betting Blackjack Strategy

This is where things get interesting. The Progressive betting blackjack strategy is when players vary their bets in some way from one hand to the next rather than alwaysbetting the same amount on every hand. There are all different types of betting progressions but they all have one common denominator. You either decrease or increase your next bet dependingupon whether the hand you just played won or lose.

Win progressions encourage you to increase your bet size after a winning hand. For example, you make a minimum bet of $10 and if you win, you raise your next stakes on the hand to $20.

There are all different kinds of win progressions. The most common is a 1-2-3-5 progression. This means you increase your bet by the above multiples after each winning hand butas soon as you experience a loss, you start the progression over with a 1 unit bet.

Proponents of win progressions will tell you that you'll win more money if you win 5 consecutive hands compared to the amount you lose if you lose 5 consecutive hands. Of course, what theydon't tell you is that you never know when that 5 consecutive winning hand streak will occur.

There are also betting progressions in which you increase your bet following a loss. These Martingale type betting progressions are dangerous and you should never consider using them.

There are also hybrid betting progressions, which have you increase your bets following a win, but after two or three success wins you lock up some profit and gradually regress your bets. Thecreativity of progressive bettors is never-ending.

First of all, the blackjack strategy for betting progressions does not change the 0.5% house edge one iota. There has never been a correlation between the hand just won (orlost) and your chance of winning the next hand. In other words, using the criteria of the result of one hand (W/L) to base how you bet on the next hand has no scientific validity. So bettingprogressions, in the long run, don't work in the sense that they won't improve your long-term chances of winning.

But here's what betting progressions will do. First off they increase the fluctuation in your session bankroll compared to flat betting. This means you can win more using abetting progression compared to flat betting but you can also lose more. Secondly, betting progressions will increase the amount of money you wager per hour compared to flat betting. If a $10bettor uses a 1-2-3-5 betting progression, his average bet will $20. Over an hour he will average $20 times 80 hands or $1600 worth of bets. The casino's expected win is 0.5% of $1600 or $8. Inother words, a $10 progressive bettor stands to lose twice as much per hour as a $10 flat bettor.

Here's a tip to save you some money in the long run if you insist on using a betting progression. Instead of starting your progression at $10, start at a lower amount (ie. $5). This will reduceyour average bet to $10 per hour and cut your hourly theoretical loss rate in half.

But in the long run flat betting and betting progressions don't work in the sense they won't change the house edge against you and you will lose in the long run. So what betting system works?That, my friends, is card counting.

Betting When You Have The Edge (Card Counting)

With card counting, you know when you have the edge based on the change in the composition of the decks and therefore you'll know when it's the right time to bet more. Sounlike betting progressions that are based on whether you win or lose the previous hands, card counting is based on the mix of cards that were played on previous hands. If more small valuecards were played in previous rounds, there are more big value cards left in the unplayed cards, and the edge shifts from dealer to the player. This would be the best time to bet more.

But I'm a realist. Not a whole lot of average blackjack players have the time or mental concentration during play that is required to master one of the popular point count cardcounting systems. These are readily available in blackjack books. But even though millions of blackjack books have been sold since Ed Thorp's classic book, Beat The Dealer (circa 1962) firstrevealed card counting to the masses, the number of players who can successfully win money in the long run at blackjack number in the hundreds and thousands.

So what's the answer to betting at blackjack for the average player? I asked Don Pronovost that same question about four years ago. Don is a software developer that markets blackjack trainingsoftware. He spent the better part of two years and a trillion computer simulated hands looking for the solution to this dilemma. What he developed is Speed Count.

Speed Count is unlike any conventional card counting system. It's much simpler to master and requires much less concentration when you play. And unlike progressive betting systems, Speed Countwill give you a verifiable advantage over the casino You can read about Speed Count in Frank Scoblete’s book, Golden Touch Blackjack Revolution.

Now that you know the scoop on betting at blackjack, I wish you many aces and faces the next time you play.

Henry Tamburin has been a respected casino gambling writer for the past 50 years. He is the author of theUltimate Blackjack Strategy Guide and was editor of theBlackjack Insider newsletter. You can read his latest articles on blackjack, video poker, and his personal playing experiences at https://www.888casino.com/blog/writers/henry-tamburin

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3 Card Wins

This pair of side bets win if the chosen side wins with three cards. Player wins pay 4 to 1 and the Banker pays 5 to 1.

For all the rules and analysis, please see my page on 3 Card Win.

3 Giving 8

The '3 Giving 8' is a baccarat side bet found at the Hippodromo casino in London. It pays 200 to 1 if the Banker hand starts with a two-card total of three and the Player hand draws a third card of an 8. For the full analysis, please see my page on 3 Giving 8.

4-5-6

This is a side bet rumored to be seen at the Atlantic City Hilton. There are three bets available on the total number of final player and banker cards. 4 cards pays 3 to 2, and 5 and 6 pay 2 to 1. The following table shows the probability of winning and expected value of each bet, based on six and eight decks.

4-5-6 Side Bet — 6 Decks

Total
Cards
ProbabilityPaysReturn
40.3789251.5-0.052688
50.3035402-0.089380
60.3175352-0.047395

4-5-6 Side Bet — 8 Decks

Total
Cards
ProbabilityPaysReturn
40.3788681.5-0.05283
50.3034442-0.089668
60.3176872-0.046939

5 Treasures

These are a set of five side bets as follows:

  • Fortune 7 — Same thing as Dragon 7
  • Golden 8 — Same thing as Panda 8
  • Blazing 7's — Wins on a 7-7 tie with the same number of cards on both sides.
  • Heavenly 9 — Wins if at least one hand is a three-card total of 9.
  • Cover All — Wins if any of the above win.

For more information, please see my 5 Treasures page.

All Red/Black

This is a set of two side bets I noticed at a live dealer Internet casino. The odds are adjusted at each betting opportunity as the shoe is dealt. The following table shows the odds at the beginning of an eight-deck shoe with odds converted to a 'to one' basis. There is no bet available for a mixture of red and black cards, but I include it in the table for informational purposes. Why 'all black' pays more than 'all red,' I have no idea. The probability is exactly the same for both.

Banker Streak

For information, please see my Banker Streak page.

Big and Small

The Big and Small are side bets found at Internet casinos using Playtech and Triple-PG software. The Small bet wins if the total number of cards is four. The Big bet wins if the total number of cards is 5 or 6. The following table shows the number of combinations and probability of winning of all possible outcomes, assuming eight decks.

Total Number of Cards — 8 Decks

Total
Cards
CombinationsProbability
61,587,927,855,264,0000.317687
51,516,734,808,780,8000.303444
41,893,735,611,458,5600.378868
Total4,998,398,275,503,3601.000000

At Triple-PG sofware, the Small bet pays 1.34, for a house edge of 11.34%. At Playtech, they pay 1.5, for a house edge of 5.28%.

At Triple-PG sofware, the Big bet pays 0.48, for a house edge of 8.07%. At Playtech, they pay 0.54, for a house edge of 4.35%.

Big Tiger

Big Tiger is a side bet in Tiger No Commission Baccarat that wins if the Banker has a three-card winning total of six. For more information, please see my page on that game.

Bad Beat Baccarat

Bad Beat Baccarat is a table game that plays like conventional baccarat but adds four side bets that win on certain bad beats, which, in this case, means a margin of victory of one point.

For information, please see my Bad Beat Baccarat page.

Contrast Bonus Baccarat

For information, please see my Contrast Bonus Baccarat page.

Even/Odd

These are a set of four side bets on whether the Player and Banker hands will be Even or Odd. For my full analysis, please see my Even and Odd page.

Golden Frog

These are a set of four side bets as follows:

  • Any 8 beats 6 — Pays 25 to 1
  • Any 2-card 9 beats 2-card 7 — Pays 50 to 1
  • Any 3-card 9 beats 3-card 1 — Pays 150 to 1
  • Any 3-card 9 beats 3-card 7 — Pays 200 to 1

For all the analysis, please see my page on Golden Frog baccarat.

Kill the Ox/Tiger

The Kill the Ox/Tiger is a baccarat side bet that wins if the either of the following events happen:

  • Player hand has three-card total of six and ties or loses.
  • Banker hand has a three-card total of 7 and ties or loses.

Wins pay 30 to 1.

For information, please see my Kill the Ox/Tiger page.

Online Blackjack With Side Bets

Ox 6

The Ox 6 wins if the Player hand is a winning three-card total of six. Wins pay 40 to 1.

For information, please see my Ox 6 page.

Small Tiger

Small Tiger is a side bet in Tiger No Commission Baccarat that wins if the Banker has a two-card winning total of six. For more information, please see my page on that game.

Royal 9

Royal 9 is a progressive baccarat side bet. The bet amount is $5. Wins are based on the Player and/or Banker hand having a 'Royal 9,' which is defined as a nine and any face card. Some wins depend on the Player and/or Banker hand matching a printed Royal 9 hand on each betting position. For more information, please see my page on Royal 9.

Side Totals

What I call the 'side totals' are a set of 20 side bets, on the exact total of the Player and Banker hands. For all the rules and analysis, please see my page on Side Total Bets in Baccarat.

Tiger

Tiger is a side bet in Tiger No Commission Baccarat that wins if the Banker has a winning total of six. The win depends on whether the six is composed of two or three cards. For more information, please see my page on that game.

Tiger Pair

Tiger Pair is a side bet in Tiger No Commission Baccarat that pays according to whether the Player and Banker hand form a pair in the first two cards. For more information, please see my page on that game.

Dragon Bonus

The 'Dragon Bonus' is a popular pair of side bets in mini baccarat. The following two tables show the possible outcomes of both the banker and player Dragon Bonus bets, based on eight decks. The lower right cells show a house edge of 2.65% on the player Dragon Bonus and 9.37% on the banker Dragon Bonus.

Dragon Bonus — Player

EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
Win by 93018,409,431,764,9920.0036830.110492
Win by 81034,097,645,543,4240.0068220.068217
Win by 7689,590,261,473,2800.0179240.107543
Win by 64141,238,897,317,8880.0282570.113027
Win by 52166,169,165,987,8400.0332440.066489
Win by 41186,780,352,174,0800.0373680.037368
Natural win1812,685,054,124,0320.1625890.162589
Natural tie089,325,908,267,5200.0178710
Loss-13,460,101,558,850,3000.692242-0.692242
Totals4,998,398,275,503,3501-0.026517

Dragon Bonus — Banker

EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
Win by 93015,390,342,909,9520.0030790.092372
Win by 81028,305,092,784,1280.0056630.056628
Win by 7679,517,099,278,3360.0159090.095451
Win by 64119,200,072,366,0800.0238480.095391
Win by 52157,275,882,332,1600.0314650.062931
Win by 41201,147,167,287,2960.0402420.040242
Natural win1812,685,054,124,0320.1625890.162589
Natural tie089,325,908,267,5200.0178710
Loss-13,495,551,656,153,8500.699334-0.699334
Totals4,998,398,275,503,3501-0.093731

The final table shows the house edge on each bet according to the number of decks.

Dragon Bonus House Edge

Number
of decks
Player
House Edge
Banker
House Edge
42.70%9.42%
62.67%9.39%
82.65%9.37%

Dragon Dragon Progressive

For information, please see my Dragon Dragon Baccarat Progressive page.

Duo Bao

For information, please see my Duo Bao page.

Egalities

Egalitie bets are on a specific tie, like a 7-7 tie. These are commonly found in the United Kingdom. You can find information about them in my Egalite bets page.

Either Pair

The Either Pair bet can be found at Internet casinos using Playtech software. It pays if the first two cards of the Player or Banker form a pair. A win pays 5 to 1. The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return under for six and eight decks. They use six at Playtech.

Either Pair

DecksProbabilityExp. Ret.
60.142439-0.145365
80.143817-0.137099

First Two Banker/Player Cards Same Suit

This is a set of two side bets I noticed at a live dealer Internet casino. It pays if the first two Player or Banker cards are the same suit. The odds are adjusted at each betting opportunity as the shoe is dealt. The following table shows the return table for either bet assuming a win of 2.87 to one, which is the initial setting for the Player bet.

First Two Player Cards Same Suit

Blackjack Bet Big Or Small
EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
Win2.8721,4240.2481930.712313
Loss-164,8960.751807-0.751807
Total86,3201.000000-0.039494

For some strange reason, the win for the first two Banker cards starts at 2.86, as opposed to the 2.87 for the Player. This increases the house edge from 3.95% to 4.20%.

Jackpot Baccarat

For information, please see my Jackpot Baccarat page.

Perfect Pair

Version 1 of the Perfect Pair side bet pays if either the Player or Banker hand form a perfect pair (in both rank and suit) in the first two cards. I am aware of wins of 25 and 26 to 1.

Version 2 of the Perfect Pair side bet pays 25 to 1 for one Perfect Pair and 250 to one for two of them.

Lucky 6

This side bet wins if the Banker has a winning total of six. The pay depends if the Banker hand is composed of two or three cards. For all the rules and analysis, please see my page on the Lucky 6.

Lucky Nines

This side bet pays based mostly on the number of nines in the Player's and Banker's initial two cards. Please see my page on Lucky Nines for all the rules and analysis.

Lucky Bonus

Lucky Bonus is a side bet found in the commission-free baccarat game at the Pala casino in California. The bet pays 18 to 1 if the banker gets a winning six. The table below shows a player advantage of 2.34%. That is not a mistake; the bet has a player advantage. However, the player can not bet more than 10% of his banker bet on the Lucky Bonus. The house edge on the banker bet is 1.33%, for a combined house edge of 1.11%.

Lucky Bonus — 8 Decks

EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
Banker win on 6182692323044556800.0538640.969547
All other-147291659710476800.946136-0.946136
Total499839827550336010.023411

3-Card Six

3-Card Six is a side bet found in the commission-free baccarat game at the Pala casino in California. The bet pays 100 to 1 if both player and banker get a 3-card six, 8 to one if one of them does, and loses otherwise. The table below shows a house edge of 13.37%.

3-Card Six — 8 Decks

EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
Two three-card 6100119327461972480.0023870.238731
One three-card 683472249328599040.0694670.555738
All other-146392405964462000.928145-0.928145
Total49983982755033501-0.133676

Lucky Six

Lucky Bonus is a side bet found in the commission-free baccarat game at the Marina Bay Sands in Singapore, known there as Nepal Baccarat. The bet wins if the Banker has a winning total of six. It pays 20 to 1 if the Banker hand is composed of three cards, and 12 for two cards. The following table shows the probability and contribution to the return for each possible outcome, based on eight decks. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 16.68%.

Lucky Six — Eight Decks

EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
Winning 3-card 62083,058,367,551,4880.0166170.332340
Winning 2-card 612186,173,936,904,1920.0372470.446961
Other-14,729,165,971,047,6800.946136-0.946136
Total4,998,398,275,503,3601.000000-0.166836

Super 6

The Super 6 is a side bet on a winning Banker total of six played on what I call the Nepal variant of commission-free baccarat. In that game, a winning Banker total of six pays 1 to 2. The Super 6 side bet pays only on a winning Banker total of six.

There are 269,232,304,455,680 winning combinations out of 4,998,398,275,503,360 possible, for a probability of winning of 5.39%. The following table shows the house edge for pays of 12 to 17 (on a 'to one' basis), although I have heard of wins of 12 and 16 only.

Super 6

PaysHouse Edge
1229.98%
1324.59%
1419.20%
1513.82%
168.43%
173.05%

Dragon 7/Tiger 7

The Dragon Bet, sometimes also known as the Tiger 7, is a side bet found in the game EZ Baccarat as well as conventional baccarat. The bet pays 40 to 1 if the banker gets a winning 3-card 7. The table below shows a house edge of 7.61%.

Dragon 7/Tiger 7

EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
Banker win on 3-card 7401126330113290240.0225340.901353
All other-148857652641743400.977466-0.977466
Total49983982755033601-0.076113

For information on counting the Dragon 7 bet, visit my page Card Counting the Dragon Side Bet in EZ Baccarat by Eliot Jacobson.

Panda 8

The Panda 8 is a side bet found in some EZ Baccarat games. The bet pays 25 to 1 if the player gets a winning 3-card 8. The table below shows a house edge of 10.19%.

Panda 8

EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
Win25172,660,763,262,9760.0345430.863580
Lose-14,825,737,512,240,3800.965457-0.965457
Total4,998,398,275,503,3601.000000-0.101876

For information on counting the Panda 8 bet, visit my page Card Counting the Panda 8 Side Bet in EZ Baccarat.

Royal Match

I have an uncomfirmed report that at some casinos in London have a side bet on a the player or banker getting a king and queen in the first two cards, called the 'Royal Match.' It should not be confused with the side bet of the same name in blackjack. The bet pays 75 for 1 for a suited king/queen, and 30 for 1 for an unsuited king/queen. A single bet pays for both player and banker hands, so the return column in the following table is the product of the probability, win, and 2 (for two hands). The lower right cell shows a return of 97.87%, for a house edge of 2.13%.

Royal Match — 8 Decks

EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
Suited K/Q752560.0029660.444856
Unsuited K/Q307680.0088970.533828
All other0852960.9881370
Total8632010.978684

Bellagio Bet

On January 12, 2010 I noticed an electronic baccarat game at the Bellagio, in which multiple players play against an animated dealer on a video screen. The rules looked standard, except there were a pair of pair bets (player and banker) that paid a premium for a three of a kind. As the tables below show, the probability of a Player three of a kind is 0.3036%, and 0.2835% on the Banker. However, strangely, the Player three of a kind paid more at 75 to 1 than the Banker three of a kind at 68 to 1. The following two tables, based on eight decks, show the overall house edges are 5.27% on the Player, and 8.57% on the Banker.

Player Pair — 8 Decks

EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
Three of a kind75151732956326400.0030360.227672
Pair93582010333808640.0716630.644968
Loser-146250239464898600.925301-0.925301
Total49983982755033601-0.05266

Banker Pair — 8 Decks

EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
Three of a kind68141711026342400.0028350.192789
Pair93592032263792640.0718640.646773
Loser-146250239464898600.925301-0.925301
Total49983982755033601-0.085739

Color in Majority

This is a set of three side bets I noticed at a live dealer Internet casino. The odds are adjusted at each betting opportunity, as the shoe is dealt. The following table shows the odds at the beginning of an eight-deck shoe and converted to a 'to one' basis. Why 'more black cards' pays more than 'more red cards,' I have no idea. The odds are exactly the same on both.

Color in Majority

EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
More red cards1.51,892,467,242,879,6100.378615-0.053463
More black cards1.531,892,467,242,879,6100.378615-0.042104
Equal red and black cards2.871,213,463,789,744,1200.242771-0.060476

All Red/Black

EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
All red cards22186,891,927,234,6880.037390-0.140030
All black cards24186,891,927,234,6880.037390-0.065250
Mixed red and black cards4,624,614,421,033,9800.925219

Winning Side and Total

Gameplay Interactive side bets on the winning side and total. They don't indicate a title, so I had to come up with one. Here are the bets they offer, what they pay, probability of winning, and expected return.

Winning Side and Total

SideTotalPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
Player1 to 331131,917,911,078,9120.026394-0.155392
Player4 to 68506,502,558,539,7760.101340-0.087936
Player7 to 921,591,728,067,746,3000.318471-0.044586
Banker1 to 331141,900,480,337,9200.028391-0.091479
Banker4 to 66649,308,023,504,8960.129913-0.090610
Banker7 to 921,501,044,062,595,0700.300327-0.099018
Tie0 to 34591,736,235,322,8800.018354-0.155694
Tie4 to 624172,148,181,515,2640.034443-0.138920
Tie7 to 919211,743,009,635,0720.042365-0.152694

Total Points Over/Under 9.5

This is a set of two side bets I noticed at a live dealer Internet casino. It pays based on the sum of the final Player and Banker points (so a maximum of 18). The odds are adjusted at each betting opportunity as the shoe is dealt. The following table shows the odds at the beginning of an eight-deck shoe. The pays were converted to a 'to one' basis.

Total Points Over/Under 9.5

EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
Under 9.5 points1.232,141,179,778,831,8700.428373-0.044728
Over 9.5 points0.662,857,218,496,671,4900.571627-0.051099

Total Points Odd/Even

This is a set of two side bets I noticed at a live dealer Internet casino. It pays based on whether the sum of the final Player and Banker points will be odd or even. The odds are adjusted at each betting opportunity as the shoe is dealt. The following table shows the odds at the begging of an eight-deck shoe. The pays were converted to a 'to one' basis.

Total Points Odd/Even

EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
Total points odd0.922,500,277,749,981,1800.500216-0.039586
Total points even0.912,498,120,525,522,1800.499784-0.045412

Natural Wins

There are various side bets on Banker and Player natural hands. I list those I know of in my page on Baccarat Natural Hand Side Bets.

Matching Dragon

Information on this bet has been moved to my page on the Matching Dragon.

Lucky 8

For information on this side bet, please see my page on Lucky 8.

Rabbit Play

For information on this side bet, please see my page on Rabbit Play bet.

Quik

For information on this side bet, please see my page on Quik Baccarat bet.

Power 8's

For information on this side bet, please see my page on Power 8's bet.

Lucky Max

For information on this side bet, please see my page on the Lucky Max bets.

One Up

For information on this side bet, please see my page on the One Up bet.

Playing Side Bets On Blackjack

Winning Totals

Winning Totals are a set of five side bets on the total points in the winning hand, whichever hand it happens to be. I've seen these bets in the Knock Out Baccarat game by Ezugi live dealer casinos. For all the rules and analysis, please visit my page on Winning Totals.

Cow Cow

The Cow Cow is a pair of side bets that win or lose according to the total of the winning side. Be warned you can lose up to nine times your stake. For all the details, please see my page on the Cow Cow.

Blackjack Bet Spread

Internal Links

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Written by: Michael Shackleford
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